The boom in U.S. oil production in places like Eagle Ford, Texas, has all kinds of fascinating implications, from presidential politics to the wider world. But as America weans itself off foreign oil, one of the most interesting impacts is found 7,000 miles away, in Beijing.
The U.S. is moving toward greater energy independence just as China, the world's second-largest economy, is becoming ever more dependent on oil from the Middle East. A net exporter of oil as recently as 1993, China now gets about half its oil from countries around the Persian Gulf. Add to that China's strong belief that naval strength is a prerequisite for great-power status, and toss in Washington's eagerness to wind down two decades of military involvement in the Middle East in order to pivot security attention to Asia, and you get all the ingredients for a historic reshuffling of the security picture in the region.
The question facing policymakers in Washington is deceptively simple: Would that be a good thing or a bad thing?
Many believe that greater Chinese involvement, especially in tasks such as protecting global commerce, will lead the country to support the international order the U.S. created after World War II—and from which China has benefited so much. Others worry that China's rapid naval modernization and desire to play a bigger global role will complicate American foreign policy, and help cloak the country's military capabilities as it strives for parity with the U.S.
One thing is certain: China's quest for a modern navy coincides with its transformation from an oil exporter to an oil importer, with most of that crude winding its way through narrow chokepoints controlled by the U.S. Navy. Known as the "Malacca Dilemma," for the straits through which pass 80% of China's crude, that nagging worry has dictated much of China's security posture.
"If you look back at rising powers in history, one of the things they do is get very uncomfortable with leaving the security of trade routes to established powers, so they gear up their military capability, which can take on a life of its own," said Michael Levi, an energy security expert at the Council on Foreign Relations.
The last time China had a true blue-water navy capable of sailing the high seas, showing the flag, and cowing potential rivals was the early 1400s. Today, the Pentagon has concluded, Beijing wants that capability again.
"China's leaders have offered unambiguous guidance that the [People's Liberation Army Navy] will play a growing role in protecting China's far-flung interests," the Pentagon report concluded. While acknowledging that Chinese naval capabilities are still in their infancy—it just launched its very first aircraft carrier, and carrier air wings are still a future project—the report underscored concerns that the Chinese navy represents the most serious challenge to U.S. interests in the Pacific.
In recent years, China has been assertive about its rights in neighboring seas, such as the South China Sea. But it has also started flexing its muscles to protect the key sea lanes further away that are the lifeblood of its economy, and which, incidentally, the U.S. has protected for almost 70 years. In 2009, China deployed three vessels to join the anti-piracy task force off the coast of Yemen, a first for the Chinese navy.
Given that protecting sea lanes today is less about great-power fleet engagements and more about fighting off pirates and terrorists, that deployment "was a watershed moment, and more specifically, their ability to sustain it for three and a half years," said Gabriel Collins, a director of the China Maritime Studies Institute at the Naval War College.
China has used other tools to protect its oil supplies. Starting late last year, Iran repeatedly threatened to close the Straits of Hormuz if Western countries kept adding new sanctions; Hormuz is the world's biggest chokepoint for oil shipments. U.S. officials warned Tehran to back off for weeks. Then, in late January, Chinese premier Wen Jiabao warned Iranian leaders not to even think about interfering with shipping through the Straits. Obama administration officials said that the warning, coming from one of the few countries that have dealings with Tehran, carried considerable weight.
As China's survival becomes increasingly entwined with things it long took for granted—such as free navigation on the high seas, and a stable supply of oil from the Middle East—the question remains whether it will throw its weight behind upholding the global order or try to undermine it. A strikingly similar debate is taking place within China between liberal internationalists and neo-mercantilists.
"There is arguably no country that has benefited more from the international system over the past 30 or 40 years than China. There should be no country that has more of an incentive" to see that system upheld, said a former senior Pentagon official.