China Secures Safe Passage to Oil Supplies Away from Sea Routes

The maiden foreign visit of the new Chinese Prime Minister 59-year-old Xi Jinping to Russia has resulted in much excitement and speculation about possibilities of cooperation, between the World's second leading economic power and a former superpower.

Predicting the strategies and political strategies of China from the days of Mao Zedong even to the present day have proved to be a much difficult task even to seasoned China Watchers and few or none appear to have been able to predict with a fair degree of accuracy the course of contemporary Chinese history. The Sino-Soviet split of the once united Marxist comrades, the inauguration of the Sino-American friendship when American Secretary of State Henry Kissinger made a secret journey to Beijing to dawn a new chapter in international relations, the eruption of the Cultural Revolution and the emergence of Deng Ziao Ping as a the new leader of China transforming China from a backward socialist economy into a booming capitalist but still communist country, all defied predictions of the China watchers.

Jinping's visit

No sensational political outcome is expected from the Chinese president's Moscow visit last week but, speculation is rife on what the cooperation between these two powerful nations that are the two most significant of countries standing up to America and its allies will do. Attempts by Russia and China to prevent military intervention in Libya failed but right now they are firmly resisting sanctions being imposed on Assad's regime in Syria and any attempts at military intervention.

Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow is important mainly because it has served to meet to a basic demand of the World's fastest growing economy: Energy. Hours after his arrival in Moscow, he reached an agreement with Russia's energy giant Rosneft to triple Russian oil exports to China from the 15 million tonnes last year to 45- 50 million tonnes (at an unspecified date) but likely to be around the 2018, Zachary Keck, reported in the journal, The Diplomat. Rosneft and the China National petroleum Oil Corporation (CNP) also signed agreements to jointly develop off shore blocks of oil in the Barents Sea and off shore deposits in Eastern Siberia.

Another Russian energy giant Gazprom was to finalise a deal to export 38 billion cubic meters of gas to China via Siberia.

China's giant appetite for oil is evident from the projections made by British Petroleum which has forecast that over half of the 'global liquid demands' through 2030 will come from China and that China is already rivalling US in terms of oil imports. British Petroleum expects China and India to account for 94 percent of the net oil demand growth through 2030. By 2030 China will import 75 percent of the oil it consumes.

Land route avoid maritime threats

What appears to be most significant about Jinping's Moscow visit is that China will not be subject controls of global sea lanes by the United States marine forces. Energy supplies will flow into China overland from Russia.

Analysts, however point out that China will keep its option open for oil supplies by sea as well and hence its rapid build up of naval power for expansion into the Indian and Pacific Oceans.

China's ties with Russia has been on the make since the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the establishment of the Russian Federation in 1991.The long Sino-Soviet border had been demarcated in 1991 and a Treaty of Good Neighbourliness and Friendly Cooperation signed in 2001. Last week's visit is expected to open a special relationship between the two countries.

The formation of the Shanghai Cooperation Council has not only resulted in strengthening to Sino-Russian relationship but also strengthening regional cooperation. The Shanghai Cooperation Council Comprises: Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. The formation of a Central Asia Energy Club is on the cards.

China's thirst for oil matches the dependence of the Russian economy on sale of oil and gas. The demand for Russia gas is on the decline in the West because of the 'Shale energy revolution' now on in the United States.

South China Sea

The close relationship between China and Russia may encounter problems with China's push into the South China Sea and Pacific Ocean. Already relations between China and Japan have reached flash point over the islands in the South China Sea located between China and Japan. At the joint press conference in Moscow Xi Jinping raised this issue but Vladimir Putin had not taken up the issue.

These Japanese commentators have pointed out that this is in contrast to former president Dmitry Medvedev's stance on the issue.  Medvedev had declared that China and Russia would support each other in the case if sovereignty and territorial integrity are involved. This implied that Russia would side with China kin the event of the disputed islands. The joint statement at last week's press conference did not include that statement.

In Japan it has been interpreted that this position was adopted by Russia because of its need for Japanese assistance in the fields of technology for the development of Siberia.

The invigorated cooperation between Russia and China will be of particular importance as the United States makes its push to strengthen its economic and military power in the Asian region. India's reaction to a China-Russian thrust into the Asian region with its close links to the United States is not known. Its projected trade turn over with China is expected to reach 1 billion dollars in the next few years.