Crude holds up despite Chinese demand blow

Neo-political wrangling remains the impetus for oil markets, as concerns relating to Ukraine and scepticism over Libya’s export recover trumped disappointing demand stats out of China.

Reuter’s statistics revealed China’s monthly implied oil demand figure for April was down 0.8% from March, and stood at a seven month low of 9.71mln barrels per day.

Nevertheless, in London trading Brent Crude futures were up almost 30 cents per barrel at US$108.70 and West Texas Intermediary futures climbed 71 cents to change hands at US$101.30 per barrel. It is the Western threats to further sanction Russia over the Ukraine crisis, a move that would further strain international relations and destabilise energy markets, that is keeping a floor beneath oil prices.

Elsewhere, traders are yet to bank on Libya restoring its crude output to normal levels. Deals have been done to remove protestor-created bottlenecks from the country’s export infrastructure. Operations at the country’s western oil fields have been disrupted for a number of months and, whilst there has been progress, the timeline to restore production and lift exports remains unclear.

Libya currently exports just 230,000 barrels per day. Exports out of Iraq may increase soon as well, as City broker’s predict the hotly anticipated start of export oil sales from the recently complete pipeline into Turley from Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region. Deutsche Bank analyst Tom Robinson says that stockpiles of crude, transported by pipeline from fields in Kurdistan, currently awaiting shipment from the Turkish port of Ceyhan will reach 2.5mln barrels in a matter of days. He believes this burgeoning crude stockpile and the pending election results in Iraq may mean that first export sales, out of the pipeline, are now be around the corner.

“Referred to as the last great oil frontier, after a number of false dawns we believe the Kurdistan region of Iraq (KRI) is poised to become a major exporter of oil,” Robinson said in a note.