Tight oil technology in the U.S. could add 3 MMbpd by 2030

HOUSTON --- Tight oil production in the U.S. will surpass expectations and additional volumes from enhanced oil recovery (EOR) tactics could add as much as 1.5 to 3.0 MMbpd by 2030, according to analysis from Wood Mackanzie.

"Growth in US tight oil continues to impress as development technology and techniques have yet to mature beyond adolescence," said Phani Gadde, senior North American upstream analyst for Wood Mackenzie.

Technologies used for EOR are in early test phase and not yet available on a commercial scale, but indicators suggest up to a 100% increase in recovery rates with some operators in the Eagle Ford, Gadde said.

"This is going to happen, like horizontal drilling and fracking, leading to another step-change in production technology," added Wood Mackenzie downstream analyst Skip York.

The analysis did not account for the crude oil export ban, which if still in place through the next two decades, production could drive down domestic crude oil prices by more than $30/bbl versus their international benchmarks. This discount has the effect of stranding barrels in the reservoirs leading to no net change in US tight oil volumes and EOR in core areas might simply push out more expensive volumes from emerging plays.

"Policy makers need to get out in front of the next technological progression to not delay the full benefits,” York said.