Oil pares weekly advance as global supply glut seen growing

NEW YORK (Bloomberg) -- Oil pared its first weekly gain in a month on signs the global surplus will expand and as the dollar increased, reducing demand for commodities as an investment.

Futures fell 3.1% in New York. The U.S. currency rose on speculation the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December for the first time since 2006. The Shanghai Composite Index tumbled 5.5%, its biggest retreat since the depths of a $5 trillion rout in August. Prices also slipped as Libya sought to boost output and Russia ruled out military retaliation against Turkey for downing its jet near the Syrian border. Diesel futures fell to a six-year low.

Oil has slumped 37% in the past year as U.S. crude inventories climbed to near a record and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped above its quota to defend market share. Iran has said it will announce plans to expand output by 500,000 bopd when OPEC members gather to discuss policy Dec. 4 in Vienna.

"This is an oversupplied market," John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York-based hedge fund, said by phone. "Dollar strength continues to put downward pressure on commodities. The big drop in the Shanghai Composite Index and terror attacks in Europe add to worries about the Chinese and European economies."

WTI, Brent

West Texas Intermediate for January delivery dropped $1.33 to close at $41.71 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. There was no settlement Thursday because of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday and trading ended early Friday, when all transactions were booked. Prices increased 3.3% this week.

Brent for January settlement slipped 60 cents, or 1.3%, to end the session at $44.86 a barrel on the London- based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract climbed 0.4 percent this week. The European benchmark crude closed at a $3.15 premium to WTI.

"The bears came in after the 5.5% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index," Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA in New York, said by phone. "The Chinese news is being looked at as a demand indicator."

Making Progress

Libya said it’s making progress to resume crude output at two fields after more than a year. A committee has met to resolve issues that have curbed supply from Sharara and Elephant, according to Mustafa Sanalla, chairman of National Oil Corp. in Tripoli. The fields have a combined capacity of 440,000 bopd and could resume full production within seven days of a decision to restart operations, he said by phone Thursday.

"Any recovery in Libyan production, along with the expected return of Iranian barrels next year, would just add to the glut," Kilduff said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin signaled his country will cooperate with the broader alliance against Islamic State after meeting French President Francois Hollande in Moscow on Thursday.  While Russia began economic retaliation against Turkey in response to the shooting down of a Russian fighter jet near the Syrian border on Tuesday, it ruled out military action.

Societe Generale SA cut its 2016 Brent forecast as it expects the market’s re-balancing to accelerate during the second half of the year. Brent will trade at $53.75 a barrel next year, down 65 cents from its previous estimate, analysts including Michael Wittner said in an e-mailed report.

Fuel Stockpiles

Fuel futures prices declined after U.S. government data on Wednesday showed that inventories increased last week. Stockpiles of distillate fuel, a category that includes diesel and heating oil, rose 1.05 million barrels to 141.4 million, the Energy Information Administration said. Gasoline supplies climbed 2.48 million to 216.7 million.

Diesel futures for December delivery dropped 5.03 cents, or 3.6%, to $1.3524 a gallon, the lowest settlement since April 2009. December gasoline fell 0.56 cent, or 0.4%, to close at $1.3905.