Chinese refiners will likely process more crude oil in the fourth quarter, expanding on a recovery that began in September, when major refineries raised throughput to capitalize on increased margins after the government raised fuel prices to match global levels.

The country will also be importing more crude toward the end of the year, with major refineries returning to full capacity after completing seasonal maintenance by the end of the third quarter.

China refined 38.76 million metric tons, or 9.47 million barrels a day, of crude in September, surpassing a record set in January of 9.38 million barrels a day, Dow Jones calculations show.

"With September runs substantially higher, it now appears that [the government's oil] product price hikes in the third quarter have improved margins and finally led refiners to raise runs," Barclays BARC.LN -1.51%investment bank said in a research report.

The combined refining capacity in October of the country's top two refiners--China National Petroleum Corp. and China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. 600028.SH -1.56%(SNP), or Sinopec--is estimated at 30.5 million tons, or 7.2 million barrels a day, up 3.3% from September and accounting for 70% of the nation's throughput, according to data from energy consultancy ICIS C1 Energy.

In addition, almost no major refiners are undergoing significant maintenance in the fourth quarter, while some key refineries are expanding capacity, said Zou Minzhen, an oil analyst with ICIS C1 Energy, noting that Sinopec's refineries in Jinling and Hohhot brought 9.5 million tons of additional primary processing capacity online by the end of October.

"Heavy capacity additions by the end of this year and early next year will provide an additional boost to China's crude-oil demand and crude imports," Barclays said.

"We expect Chinese crude-oil demand to recover gradually as refiners increase runs in the face of better margins, new capacity additions and [the need to build] healthier stock levels," it added.

Oil product stocks were down 25.6% at the end of August from March, according to calculations based on data from the state-run Xinhua news agency's fortnightly OGP energy newsletter.

"Crude runs have been flat, so oil product stocks have been drawn down over the past six months," said Alex Yap, an analyst at energy consultancy FGE. "Now it's time to restock."

However, stockpiles rose 1% in September from August, Xinhua reported last week. Oil product stockpiles were also up 350,000 tons in September from a year earlier, the National Development and Reform Commission said last week, without disclosing the total.

China's National Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to release its monthly crude run data Friday.