NEW ORLEANS -- As director of Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, and a veteran diplomat who served in eight U.S. administrations, Edward Djerejian has a long track record of watching, analyzing and dealing with dozens of foreign dignitaries and tricky policy issues. As such, he has his own particular views on where oil prices are headed, and what Saudi Arabia’s motivations may be on that subject.

Interestingly enough, his views and conclusions seem to confirm the consensus view held by IPAA members and the industry at large. Speaking to IPAA’s annual meeting on Monday afternoon, Djerejian noted that the Saudis have been motivated by a desire to protect market share, but also by other agenda items that include trying to affect Russian oil production and Iranian oil exports.

And as regards how long this course will be pursued, Djerejian said, “I think that demand and supply will be more in balance over the next year. I just don’t think that the Gulf countries, including Saudi, in the long term, will be able to maintain this pace. Just last week, Saudi’s credit rating was reduced from double-A to single-A.”

At the same time, added Djerejian, “The Saudis have a significant social welfare program that is expensive to maintain. Thus, the break-even price for revenue to their national budget has gone from $68/bbl in 2012 to $96-$105/bbl now. They can’t keep up this pace forever. That having been said, they really have been spooked by the shale revolution and are looking to Asia as the source of future demand growth for their exports.”

Syria

Djerejian lamented how the U.S. has lost influence with Syria, to the benefit of Russia. “We used to be able to do business with Syria,” he explained. “When Hafez al-Assad, the father of the current president, Bashar al-Assad, was in office, we could get things done occasionally by dealing directly with him.”

As an example, Djerejian cited how the U.S. was able to get Syria to join the coalition against Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, after he invaded Kuwait in 1990. “He joined, because he hated Saddam; Saddam was his rival. We used to be able to take the word of Hafez al-Assad, but you cannot trust the word of Bashar al-Assad.” And, in the meantime, due to the weakness of the Obama administration, the Russians under President Vladimir Putin have taken over the agenda in Syria completely.

Djerejian also decried Obama’s decision to kill the Keystone XL pipeline project. “If you listened to President Obama’s announcement, it was faulty,” he noted. “Oil sands follow the oil price. If the price goes up, there will be more oil sands development. Stopping the Keystone XL will not stop oil sands development. I don’t get it (Obama’s reasoning). This administration does not understand the energy sector at all. They view it through the prism of Big Oil and big profits, and the environment. They don’t understand how vital it is to the economy and the private sector.”